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Kazakhstan can earn billions of dollars in petrochemicals.

Kazakhstan can get the main benefit from the development of petrochemical industry in the Eurasian region. This forecast was announced by EDB experts, LS reports.

During the webinar, the head of the Center for Industry Analysis Arman Akhunbayev noted that the countries of the region* are the largest exporters of hydrocarbons. As a result, a raw material development model has been formed in the region, which strongly affects the rate of economic growth and other indicators.

According to the expert, the situation needs to be radically changed, and in this area significant emphasis can be placed on the transition to petrochemical production.

At the same time, if now the share of this industry in Kazakhstan's GDP is only 1.8%, and Russia's is 2.9%, then by 2035 this figure in both countries may increase several times. For comparison, at the moment in Germany, the petrochemical industry accounts for 6.9% of GDP, in Japan – 8.2%, in China – 8.9%.

Akhunbayev noted that the Eurasian region has 7% of the world's oil reserves (115 billion barrels) and 30% of the world's gas reserves (62.8 trillion cubic meters). At the same time, there is already a large polymer production in the region and an active state policy is being carried out for the development of the chemical industry. According to EDB's expectations, by 2035, the annual increase in polymer production will reach 5.8% (up to 11 million tons). At the same time, the main increase will be in Russia and Kazakhstan. Polyethylene and polypropylene will be among the key products.

The main purchasers of polymers will be the Asia-Pacific region and India, which will account for 40% of the global petrochemical market. At the same time, Russia (65.6%) and Kazakhstan (22.5%) will become the main exporters of polymers from the Eurasian region.

Akhunbayev predicted that as a result of the development of this industry, by 2035, the GDP growth of the Eurasian region will amount to $59-153.5 billion, depending on the scenario. The increase in gross production will be $131.9-319.9 billion, the increase in the manufacturing industry will be $62-138.1 billion. Kazakhstan will account for up to 25% of the effect: GDP growth – $0.5-39.7 billion, gross output growth – $0.9-72.8 billion, growth in the manufacturing industry – $0.3-28.2 billion.

At the same time, the price difference between raw materials and finished products reaches 20 times. Asset Adakhaev, a senior analyst at the EDB, drew attention to this.

He noted that if ethane, which belongs to the products of the first conversion, costs $80-90 per ton, then polyethylene pipes (finished products) are sold for $2.5-3.7 thousand per ton. In addition, $1 in petrochemistry creates up to $2.6 in related industries.

At the same time, according to Adakhayev, due to the development of petrochemistry, the demand for oil and gas will remain at a high level until 2050. At the same time, if the current consumption is fuel and energy, then in the future half of the use will fall on the production of polymer products. Currently, the petrochemical industry accounts for 14% of the demand for raw materials.

"Taking into account the high level of technology, the development of petrochemistry will allow for a qualitative diversification of the economy and facilitate the exit of countries from the beaten track, and will also be able to change the entire long–term development potential," Adakhayev predicted.

The expert acknowledged that the development of the industry will create an additional burden on the environment. Nevertheless, according to the expert, this effect can be minimized by replacing a number of traditional components with petrochemical products. For example, the use of polymer pipes instead of cast iron in housing and communal services reduces the impact on the environment, since these products have chemical resistance to reagents and soil.

According to Adakhayev, at the first stage, the development of the petrochemical cluster is more profitable to carry out in SEZs and technoparks due to infrastructure and state preferences, which create an impetus for the development of SMEs in this area.

At the same time, there are several barriers – for example, the high capital intensity of projects in the industry.

"Projects take from $1 billion to several hundred billion dollars. Several investors need to be involved in their implementation, and it takes several years to launch the plant. However, this has a tremendous effect in the form of economic diversification. Another problem is the low generation of direct jobs. But there are vacancies in related industries. Also, this area makes it possible to localize the added value," he said.

The Ministry of Energy expects that Kazakhstan's petrochemical industry will attract $8 billion in investments.

*Countries of the Eurasian region – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.

Source: lsm.kz
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